Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 20.163384 21.244188 22.374931 23.650211 25.053474 26.556182 28.294682
2026-02-01 18.358458 19.831919 21.441648 23.344898 25.552543 28.056508 31.146589
2026-02-08 17.134851 18.801137 20.672150 22.953674 25.696190 28.935015 33.126041
2026-02-15 16.320879 18.133119 20.213702 22.816417 26.041167 29.986237 35.314869
2026-02-22 15.912345 17.886427 20.200690 23.167615 26.954544 31.755223 38.536340
2026-03-01 15.287433 17.332416 19.767377 22.947512 27.100780 32.516088 40.449666
2026-03-08 14.557017 16.607790 19.077575 22.347819 26.693056 32.482032 41.209428
2026-03-15 14.058371 16.141503 18.679685 22.088702 26.701103 32.988982 42.769665
2026-03-22 13.892808 16.076968 18.776902 22.468412 27.579345 34.757720 46.398588
2026-03-29 13.671624 15.928526 18.753565 22.677239 28.222645 36.226325 49.724830
2026-04-05 13.462431 15.783698 18.723487 22.867498 28.841043 37.695273 53.229533
2026-04-12 13.141631 15.480958 18.470050 22.731730 28.969813 38.412838 55.519604
2026-04-19 12.750661 15.084729 18.091117 22.422059 28.851629 38.777811 57.319280
2026-04-26 12.382211 14.707102 17.724142 22.112892 28.716109 39.105083 59.104842
2026-05-03 12.021940 14.328006 17.339977 21.758504 28.484999 39.247215 60.539575
2026-05-10 11.765316 14.078343 17.122394 21.632839 28.596226 39.966445 63.236158
2026-05-17 11.678711 14.052440 17.209533 21.953652 29.425400 41.990649 69.039961
2026-05-24 11.422495 13.788584 16.954987 21.752640 29.399098 42.490019 71.575509
2026-05-31 11.064978 13.377748 16.482004 21.204368 28.774543 41.849238 71.361421
2026-06-07 10.825181 13.122238 16.220975 20.967194 28.651432 42.126059 73.396185
2026-06-14 10.783285 13.136484 16.341429 21.314691 29.522172 44.349331 80.743542
2026-06-21 10.694617 13.082711 16.361407 21.505651 30.136137 46.139846 87.482638
2026-06-28 10.604731 13.024158 16.371457 21.679538 30.728819 47.949699 94.844599